The main reason why the international community has been unwilling to act on Libya lies on a classical game theory dilemma.
As the world watched Egypt and Tunisia successfully protest and oust their leaders, many believed Libya would follow suit. Recent reports, however, show that Gaddafi might be able to win the war against the rebels due to Libyan army’s overwhelming firepower.
The world wants Gaddafi out, because first, indiscriminate killing of his own people is abhorrent, and second, a new Libyan government, which could be a secular or Islamist, might be a better world partner in terms of trade and diplomacy.
The problem is that nobody is making a concrete action against Gaddafi’s forces. Sure, we have a lot of rhetorical fire even from the United States, but they are quite empty in the international realm unless it is backed by a solid force. In fact, the United States, one can argue, was slow in asking Gaddafi to step down, because first, there was little evidence that Gaddafi would have been overthrown by the revolution, and second, the United States actually has lukewarm ties with the de facto dictator.
The Arab League has asked the United Nations to institute a no-fly zone in Libyan airspace. This move should hint that there might be a collective action problem going on. Everybody, including the countries in the Middle East, wants the rebel to win. It is a public good if Gaddafi falls. The problem is that nobody wants to pay the price for helping the rebels. Instituting a no-fly zone is cost prohibitive enough that even the United States seems to be pushing that option outside the table. No government has stepped up to commit actual forces to help the rebels, and the fact that the Arab League asking the United Nations shows that the Arab nations want the United Nations to shoulder the no-fly zone cost.
If there is no coherent response from the international community, Gaddafi might actually crush the rebels for good. Such outcome will not only bring a deathly totalitarian age within Libya but also hurt the international community for rhetorically supporting the rebels.
Of course, looking at the Libyan conflict merely as a collective action analysis does not actually help solve the problem, because there are other factors involved in this crisis. What the collective action analysis does, however, is potentially show the source of the international community unwillingness to help the Libyan people.
